How snow-sure is Alpe Cermis?
At Alpe Cermis, there was enough natural snow at Christmas in 9 of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14: at least 30 cm on 10 or more of the 14 days from 22 December to 4 January at mid-mountain (1,600 m; pistes 862–2,250 m). With snowmaking: 30 of 30. Climate models expect an average of 3.9 such Christmas days with natural snow there in 2041–2060 (RCP4.5), against 5.2 in 1986–2005. Source: Copernicus C3S, Trento region.
More snowy Christmases than 22% of ski resorts in Italy and than 17% of the 690 European resorts on this site.
Christmas, year by year
Each box is one Christmas holiday (22 December to 4 January): the darker, the more days with at least 30 cm of natural snow. Outlined: at least 10 of the 14 days.
Christmases without enough natural snow (1,600 m): 1985/86, 1987/88, 1988/89, 1990/91, 1991/92, 1992/93, 1993/94, 1994/95, 1995/96, 1997/98, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2000/01, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2005/06, 2006/07, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2011/12, 2013/14.
Every winter in numbers
| Winter | Days ≥ 30 cm, natural snow | Days ≥ 30 cm, with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|
| 1984/85 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1985/86 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1986/87 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1987/88 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1988/89 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1989/90 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1990/91 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1991/92 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1992/93 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1993/94 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1994/95 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1995/96 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1996/97 | 10 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1997/98 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1998/99 | 1 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1999/00 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2000/01 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2001/02 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2002/03 | 7 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2003/04 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2004/05 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2005/06 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2006/07 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2007/08 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2008/09 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2009/10 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2010/11 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2011/12 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2012/13 | 10 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2013/14 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
Bottom, middle, top
| Level | m | C3S height band | Snowy Christmases | Days ≥ 30 cm per season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom (lowest run) | 862 | 900 | 0 of 30 | 2 |
| Mid-mountain | 1,556 | 1,600 | 9 of 30 | 71 |
| Top (highest run) | 2,250 | 2,200 | 23 of 30 | 138 |
The whole season
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), Natural snow | 71 |
|---|---|
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), With snowmaking | 143 |
| Days with ≥ 5 cm of natural snow (average) | 134 |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, Natural snow | 6 January – 26 March (Winters with a continuous cover: 26/30) |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, With snowmaking | 30 November – 18 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
Christmases with enough natural snow: 4 of 15 in 1984/85–1998/99, 5 of 15 in 1999/2000–2013/14. Snow days (≥ 30 cm) per season on average: 60 and 81.
What about the future? Climate scenarios
| Period | Christmas, days natural | Christmas, days with snowmaking | Season, days natural | Season, days with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models, reference 1986–2005 | 5.2 | 13.8 | 83 | 142 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2021–2040 | 4.6 | 12.7 | 76 | 135 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2041–2060 | 3.9 | 12.8 | 68 | 132 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2021–2040 | 4.2 | 13.6 | 64 | 130 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2041–2060 | 3.2 | 12.8 | 55 | 122 |
Average of several regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX). Compare the scenarios with the model reference 1986–2005, not with the yearly values above: models and reanalysis have different errors. Scenarios are not forecasts.
Same numbers as
The data describe a region and a 100 m height band, not individual runs. These resorts lie in the same region at the same mid-mountain band: Monte Bondone, Paganella.
The resort
| Country | Italy |
|---|---|
| Region (NUTS-3) | Trento (ITH20) |
| Pistes (OpenStreetMap) | 24 km |
| Pistes from … to | 862–2,250 m |
| Lifts | 8 |
| Map | OpenStreetMap |
What the numbers mean
- “Snow” here means at least 30 cm of snow depth in the model (Crocus) — enough to ski on, not just a white field.
- The model works per region (NUTS-3) and 100 m height band, not per piste; north-facing slopes, wind and glaciers are not taken into account.
- The reanalysis ends with the 2013/14 winter. More recent winters are not included.
- “With snowmaking” is the model's typical snowmaking, not the resort's actual equipment.