How snow-sure is Großer Arber, Velký Javor?
At Großer Arber, Velký Javor, there was enough natural snow at Christmas in 18 of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14: at least 30 cm on 10 or more of the 14 days from 22 December to 4 January at mid-mountain (1,200 m; pistes 1,049–1,437 m). With snowmaking: 29 of 30. Climate models expect an average of 6.4 such Christmas days with natural snow there in 2041–2060 (RCP4.5), against 8.3 in 1986–2005. Source: Copernicus C3S, Regen region.
More snowy Christmases than 51% of ski resorts in Germany and than 40% of the 690 European resorts on this site.
Christmas, year by year
Each box is one Christmas holiday (22 December to 4 January): the darker, the more days with at least 30 cm of natural snow. Outlined: at least 10 of the 14 days.
Christmases without enough natural snow (1,200 m): 1986/87, 1988/89, 1993/94, 1994/95, 1996/97, 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2012/13, 2013/14.
Every winter in numbers
| Winter | Days ≥ 30 cm, natural snow | Days ≥ 30 cm, with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|
| 1984/85 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1985/86 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1986/87 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1987/88 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1988/89 | 0 of 14 | 13 of 14 |
| 1989/90 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1990/91 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1991/92 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1992/93 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1993/94 | 1 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1994/95 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1995/96 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1996/97 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1997/98 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1998/99 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1999/00 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2000/01 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2001/02 | 1 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2002/03 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2003/04 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2004/05 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2005/06 | 0 of 14 | 9 of 14 |
| 2006/07 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2007/08 | 5 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2008/09 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2009/10 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2010/11 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2011/12 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2012/13 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2013/14 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
Bottom, middle, top
| Level | m | C3S height band | Snowy Christmases | Days ≥ 30 cm per season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom (lowest run) | 1,049 | 1,000 | 8 of 30 | 59 |
| Mid-mountain | 1,243 | 1,200 | 18 of 30 | 98 |
| Top (highest run) | 1,437 | no height band in the data | – | – |
The whole season
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), Natural snow | 98 |
|---|---|
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), With snowmaking | 151 |
| Days with ≥ 5 cm of natural snow (average) | 141 |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, Natural snow | 21 December – 4 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, With snowmaking | 1 December – 1 May (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
Christmases with enough natural snow: 10 of 15 in 1984/85–1998/99, 8 of 15 in 1999/2000–2013/14. Snow days (≥ 30 cm) per season on average: 96 and 100.
What about the future? Climate scenarios
| Period | Christmas, days natural | Christmas, days with snowmaking | Season, days natural | Season, days with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models, reference 1986–2005 | 8.3 | 13.7 | 108 | 151 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2021–2040 | 5.3 | 12.2 | 90 | 140 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2041–2060 | 6.4 | 12.3 | 86 | 134 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2021–2040 | 7.3 | 13.3 | 92 | 137 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2041–2060 | 5.1 | 11.8 | 69 | 122 |
Average of several regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX). Compare the scenarios with the model reference 1986–2005, not with the yearly values above: models and reanalysis have different errors. Scenarios are not forecasts.
The resort
| Country | Germany |
|---|---|
| Region (NUTS-3) | Regen (DE229) |
| Pistes (OpenStreetMap) | 11 km |
| Pistes from … to | 1,049–1,437 m |
| Lifts | 10 |
| Map | OpenStreetMap |
What the numbers mean
- “Snow” here means at least 30 cm of snow depth in the model (Crocus) — enough to ski on, not just a white field.
- The model works per region (NUTS-3) and 100 m height band, not per piste; north-facing slopes, wind and glaciers are not taken into account.
- The reanalysis ends with the 2013/14 winter. More recent winters are not included.
- “With snowmaking” is the model's typical snowmaking, not the resort's actual equipment.