How snow-sure is Kasprowy Wierch?
At Kasprowy Wierch, there was enough natural snow at Christmas in 23 of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14: at least 30 cm on 10 or more of the 14 days from 22 December to 4 January at mid-mountain (1,500 m; pistes 1,039–1,958 m). With snowmaking: 30 of 30. Climate models expect an average of 10.7 such Christmas days with natural snow there in 2041–2060 (RCP4.5), against 12.8 in 1986–2005. Source: Copernicus C3S, Nowotarski region.
More snowy Christmases than 93% of ski resorts in Poland and than 60% of the 690 European resorts on this site.
Christmas, year by year
Each box is one Christmas holiday (22 December to 4 January): the darker, the more days with at least 30 cm of natural snow. Outlined: at least 10 of the 14 days.
Christmases without enough natural snow (1,500 m): 1999/00, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2008/09, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14.
Every winter in numbers
| Winter | Days ≥ 30 cm, natural snow | Days ≥ 30 cm, with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|
| 1984/85 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1985/86 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1986/87 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1987/88 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1988/89 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1989/90 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1990/91 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1991/92 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1992/93 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1993/94 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1994/95 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1995/96 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1996/97 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1997/98 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1998/99 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1999/00 | 1 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2000/01 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2001/02 | 1 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2002/03 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2003/04 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2004/05 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2005/06 | 7 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2006/07 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2007/08 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2008/09 | 1 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2009/10 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2010/11 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2011/12 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2012/13 | 7 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2013/14 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
Bottom, middle, top
| Level | m | C3S height band | Snowy Christmases | Days ≥ 30 cm per season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom (lowest run) | 1,039 | 1,000 | 12 of 30 | 99 |
| Mid-mountain | 1,498 | 1,500 | 23 of 30 | 142 |
| Top (highest run) | 1,958 | 1,900 | 29 of 30 | 156 |
The whole season
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), Natural snow | 142 |
|---|---|
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), With snowmaking | 176 |
| Days with ≥ 5 cm of natural snow (average) | 173 |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, Natural snow | 10 December – 29 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, With snowmaking | 19 November – 16 May (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
Christmases with enough natural snow: 15 of 15 in 1984/85–1998/99, 8 of 15 in 1999/2000–2013/14. Snow days (≥ 30 cm) per season on average: 151 and 133.
What about the future? Climate scenarios
| Period | Christmas, days natural | Christmas, days with snowmaking | Season, days natural | Season, days with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models, reference 1986–2005 | 12.8 | 14.0 | 146 | 179 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2021–2040 | 11.0 | 13.6 | 136 | 174 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2041–2060 | 10.7 | 13.6 | 130 | 170 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2021–2040 | 11.5 | 13.8 | 133 | 169 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2041–2060 | 10.5 | 13.6 | 118 | 157 |
Average of several regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX). Compare the scenarios with the model reference 1986–2005, not with the yearly values above: models and reanalysis have different errors. Scenarios are not forecasts.
The resort
| Country | Poland |
|---|---|
| Region (NUTS-3) | Nowotarski (PL219) |
| Pistes (OpenStreetMap) | 10 km |
| Pistes from … to | 1,039–1,958 m |
| Lifts | 5 |
| Map | OpenStreetMap |
What the numbers mean
- “Snow” here means at least 30 cm of snow depth in the model (Crocus) — enough to ski on, not just a white field.
- The model works per region (NUTS-3) and 100 m height band, not per piste; north-facing slopes, wind and glaciers are not taken into account.
- The reanalysis ends with the 2013/14 winter. More recent winters are not included.
- “With snowmaking” is the model's typical snowmaking, not the resort's actual equipment.