How snow-sure is Trysil?

At Trysil, there was enough natural snow at Christmas in 22 of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14: at least 30 cm on 10 or more of the 14 days from 22 December to 4 January at mid-mountain (800 m; pistes 407–1,131 m). With snowmaking: 30 of 30. Climate models expect an average of 7.5 such Christmas days with natural snow there in 2041–2060 (RCP4.5), against 10.2 in 1986–2005. Source: Copernicus C3S, Hedmark region.

How it works ↓

Data: C3S UERRA reanalysis, winters 1984/85–2013/14; EURO-CORDEX scenarios to 2060 · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

22 of 30Snowy Christmases · natural snow

30 of 30Snowy Christmases · with snowmaking

131Days ≥ 30 cm per season · natural snow

More snowy Christmases than 10% of ski resorts in Norway and than 57% of the 690 European resorts on this site.

Christmas, year by year

1984/852013/14

Each box is one Christmas holiday (22 December to 4 January): the darker, the more days with at least 30 cm of natural snow. Outlined: at least 10 of the 14 days.

Christmases without enough natural snow (800 m): 1985/86, 1989/90, 1992/93, 1994/95, 1997/98, 2001/02, 2005/06, 2013/14.

Every winter in numbers

Winter	Days ≥ 30 cm, natural snow	Days ≥ 30 cm, with snowmaking
1984/85	14 of 14	14 of 14
1985/86	1 of 14	14 of 14
1986/87	11 of 14	14 of 14
1987/88	14 of 14	14 of 14
1988/89	14 of 14	14 of 14
1989/90	0 of 14	14 of 14
1990/91	14 of 14	14 of 14
1991/92	14 of 14	14 of 14
1992/93	3 of 14	14 of 14
1993/94	14 of 14	14 of 14
1994/95	0 of 14	14 of 14
1995/96	14 of 14	14 of 14
1996/97	14 of 14	14 of 14
1997/98	0 of 14	14 of 14
1998/99	14 of 14	14 of 14
1999/00	14 of 14	14 of 14
2000/01	14 of 14	14 of 14
2001/02	4 of 14	14 of 14
2002/03	14 of 14	14 of 14
2003/04	14 of 14	14 of 14
2004/05	13 of 14	14 of 14
2005/06	4 of 14	14 of 14
2006/07	14 of 14	14 of 14
2007/08	14 of 14	14 of 14
2008/09	14 of 14	14 of 14
2009/10	14 of 14	14 of 14
2010/11	14 of 14	14 of 14
2011/12	14 of 14	14 of 14
2012/13	14 of 14	14 of 14
2013/14	6 of 14	14 of 14

For a resort with a mid-mountain at just 800 m, Trysil holds up well: natural snow at Christmas in 22 of 30 winters (1984/85–2013/14). That beats 57% of the European resorts on the site, but by Norwegian standards it is not much: Trysil outscores only 10% of Norwegian resorts, and it falls three winters short of the snow-sure threshold (25 of 30).

Swedish neighbours and the highest runs

Just across the border, in Sweden, Sälen and Idre Fjäll, with a mid-mountain at 700 m, have each logged 27 snowy Christmases out of 30. In the north, altitude matters less than in the Alps, but in Trysil Christmas falls right at the edge of the season: continuous natural snow cover in a typical winter sets in by 19 December and lasts until 26 April. The highest run at 1,131 m was snowy in 29 of 30 Christmases, the lowest run at 407 m in 13. Models for 2041–2060 (RCP4.5) give 7.5 snowy Christmas days out of 14 against 10.2 in the model reference 1986–2005 (methodology); this is a climate scenario, not a forecast. The verdict: at Christmas, Trysil is possible with skiing up top, but February is more reliable here.

Bottom, middle, top

Piste heights and Christmases with enough natural snow (of 30); light: snow-sure (≥ 25 of 30)

Level	m	C3S height band	Snowy Christmases	Days ≥ 30 cm per season
Bottom (lowest run)	407	400	13 of 30	104
Mid-mountain	769	800	22 of 30	131
Top (highest run)	1,131	1,100	29 of 30	168

The whole season

Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), Natural snow	131
Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), With snowmaking	184
Days with ≥ 5 cm of natural snow (average)	186
Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, Natural snow	19 December – 26 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30)
Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, With snowmaking	9 November – 12 May (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30)

Christmases with enough natural snow: 10 of 15 in 1984/85–1998/99, 12 of 15 in 1999/2000–2013/14. Snow days (≥ 30 cm) per season on average: 127 and 135.

What about the future? Climate scenarios

Days ≥ 30 cm per season, natural snow – climate-model average

Period	Christmas, days natural	Christmas, days with snowmaking	Season, days natural	Season, days with snowmaking
Models, reference 1986–2005	10.2	14.0	132	183
Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2021–2040	7.5	13.9	120	176
Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2041–2060	7.5	14.0	117	174
Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2021–2040	7.5	14.0	116	172
Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2041–2060	6.3	14.0	109	169

Average of several regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX). Compare the scenarios with the model reference 1986–2005, not with the yearly values above: models and reanalysis have different errors. Scenarios are not forecasts.

The resort

Country	Norway
Region (NUTS-3)	Hedmark (NO021)
Pistes (OpenStreetMap)	101 km
Pistes from … to	407–1,131 m
Lifts	40
Map	OpenStreetMap

What the numbers mean

“Snow” here means at least 30 cm of snow depth in the model (Crocus) — enough to ski on, not just a white field.
The model works per region (NUTS-3) and 100 m height band, not per piste; north-facing slopes, wind and glaciers are not taken into account.
The reanalysis ends with the 2013/14 winter. More recent winters are not included.
“With snowmaking” is the model's typical snowmaking, not the resort's actual equipment.

How we calculate