Yes, Courchevel is snow-sure at Christmas: at mid-mountain, 1,900 m, natural snow fell short for the holidays only once in the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14, in 1988/89, when not a single one of the 14 Christmas days managed cover of 30 cm or more. In the second half of the period, from 1999/2000 to 2013/14, all 15 of 15 Christmases were snowy, against 14 of 15 in the first half, and days with at least 30 cm per season average 162 against 160. On this count Courchevel beats 85% of the ski resorts in France and 82% of the 690 resorts in Europe on the site. It has one weak spot: the lowest runs, where in December snow often survives only thanks to the guns. The figures describe the climate of 30 winters and the models' climate scenarios: climate, not a forecast. The resort publishes snow depth for the week you need.
Where there's less snow: the lowest runs and the descent to the village
The runs at Courchevel in OpenStreetMap range from 1,110 to 2,702 m (151 km, 59 lifts). Top and mid-mountain are almost equally reliable: the highest run saw 27 snowy Christmases out of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14 and 174 days with at least 30 cm per season. Down at 1,110 m there are only 12 of 30 snowy Christmases and 63 days per season, so skiing back to the village on the lowest runs over the holidays usually relies on snowmaking.
At mid-mountain, continuous natural snow cover of 30 cm or more settled in by 3 December in a typical winter and lasted until 11 May, and that held in all 30 winters of the period. With snowmaking the runs are ready from 13 November to 22 May. A season adds up to 161 days with at least 30 cm (192 with snowmaking) and 187 days with at least 5 cm, so spring snow in April is a regular feature here too. The Crocus model calculates snow by NUTS-3 region and height band, and Le Grand Domaine and Pralognan-la-Vanoise in the same region of Savoie at the same altitude get exactly the same numbers (methodology).
Tarentaise neighbours and climate scenarios: what to pick for Christmas
Among its neighbours in the Tarentaise, Val Thorens at 2,500 m scored 30 snowy Christmases out of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14 and Méribel at 2,000 m 28 of 30, so Courchevel sits between them. The EURO-CORDEX scenarios are compared against their own model reference 1986–2005, which gave 12.1 Christmas days out of 14 with natural snow of 30 cm or more. In 2041–2060 under medium emissions (RCP4.5) the models give 11.3 days, under high emissions (RCP8.5) 10.8; with snowmaking 13.8 and 14 days out of 14. The season on natural snow is shorter, 140 and 130 days against 153 in the reference, but the holidays stay mostly snowy.
For a Christmas or New Year trip Courchevel is a snow-sure choice: at mid-mountain and up top natural snow was there almost every year, and the only snowless winter in the series, 1988/89, fell in its first half. Skiing right down to the bottom on natural snow over the holidays worked in only 12 winters out of 30, so expect the guns on the lowest runs; if you want an even bigger margin, go for Val Thorens. You can compare it with other resorts in the country on the France page.