Even in the worst winter of the series for the holidays, 2000/01, mid-mountain at Val Thorens (2,500 m) had 10 of the 14 Christmas days with at least 30 cm of natural snow, exactly what it takes for Christmas to count as a snowy Christmas. In every other winter of 1984/85–2013/14 there was more snow, and not a single snowless Christmas occurred here in 30 years, neither in the first half of the period nor in the second (15 of 15 each). Models give less snow by 2041–2060, but the holidays at this altitude stay mostly snowy. For snow at Christmas, Val Thorens beats 88% of French resorts and 87% of the 690 European resorts on the site. The numbers describe the climate of 30 winters and model scenarios: climate, not a forecast. The resort reports how much snow is actually on the slopes in the week you need.
By 2041–2060: what changes according to the models
EURO-CORDEX scenarios are compared not with real winters but with the model reference 1986–2005, in which mid-mountain at Val Thorens saw 12.6 of the 14 Christmas days with at least 30 cm of snow. In 2041–2060 under medium emissions (RCP4.5) the models give 11.3 days, under high emissions (RCP8.5) 11.1. Both figures sit above 10, the threshold for a snowy Christmas, so on average the holidays here keep their snow, though the margin shrinks. With snowmaking, it is 13.5 and 14 days out of 14. The season shrinks more noticeably: 158 and 146 days with at least 30 cm against 175 in the reference. Details on the scenarios are in the methodology.
Tignes - Val d'Isère and Val Thorens - Orelle get the same numbers as Val Thorens: the Crocus model calculates snow for a NUTS-3 region (here Savoie) and a height band, and these resorts share both.
Snow from November to May and the lowest run
In a typical winter of 1984/85–2013/14, continuous natural snow cover of at least 30 cm at mid-mountain settled by 19 November and held until 18 May; that happened in all 30 winters. With snowmaking, the season runs from 9 November to 31 May. That makes 177 days with at least 30 cm per season (202 with snowmaking) and 200 days with at least 5 cm; in 1999/2000–2013/14 the average was 172 days against 181 in the first half of the period. Early season in late November and spring skiing in May are routine here.
Runs mapped in OpenStreetMap range from 1,726 to 3,181 m (115 km, 27 lifts). The lowest run, at 1,726 m, scored 22 snowy Christmases out of 30 and 124 days per season, so the descent to the very bottom over the holidays sometimes relies on snow cannons. The highest run, at 3,181 m, sits above the height bands the data has for the region, and there are no figures for it.
If snow at Christmas and New Year is your top priority, Val Thorens is one of the most snow-sure choices in the Alps: 30 of 30 winters at mid-mountain and a margin above the threshold even in the scenarios to 2060. Its Tarentaise neighbours Courchevel and Méribel fall slightly short; you can compare them with other resorts on the France page.