How snow-sure is Konaklı Kayak Merkezi?
At Konaklı Kayak Merkezi, there was enough natural snow at Christmas in 12 of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14: at least 30 cm on 10 or more of the 14 days from 22 December to 4 January at mid-mountain (2,700 m; pistes 2,320–3,130 m). With snowmaking: 30 of 30. Climate models expect an average of 4.7 such Christmas days with natural snow there in 2041–2060 (RCP4.5), against 8.6 in 1986–2005. Source: Copernicus C3S, Erzurum region.
More snowy Christmases than 17% of ski resorts in Türkiye and than 25% of the 690 European resorts on this site.
Christmas, year by year
Each box is one Christmas holiday (22 December to 4 January): the darker, the more days with at least 30 cm of natural snow. Outlined: at least 10 of the 14 days.
Christmases without enough natural snow (2,700 m): 1984/85, 1985/86, 1989/90, 1990/91, 1992/93, 1994/95, 1996/97, 1997/98, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2003/04, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2010/11, 2012/13, 2013/14.
Every winter in numbers
| Winter | Days ≥ 30 cm, natural snow | Days ≥ 30 cm, with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|
| 1984/85 | 2 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1985/86 | 9 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1986/87 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1987/88 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1988/89 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1989/90 | 3 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1990/91 | 5 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1991/92 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1992/93 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1993/94 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1994/95 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1995/96 | 13 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1996/97 | 5 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1997/98 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1998/99 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 1999/00 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2000/01 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2001/02 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2002/03 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2003/04 | 9 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2004/05 | 12 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2005/06 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2006/07 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2007/08 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2008/09 | 9 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2009/10 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2010/11 | 4 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2011/12 | 14 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2012/13 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
| 2013/14 | 0 of 14 | 14 of 14 |
Bottom, middle, top
| Level | m | C3S height band | Snowy Christmases | Days ≥ 30 cm per season |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bottom (lowest run) | 2,320 | 2,300 | 6 of 30 | 77 |
| Mid-mountain | 2,725 | 2,700 | 12 of 30 | 98 |
| Top (highest run) | 3,130 | 3,000 | 30 of 30 | 209 |
The whole season
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), Natural snow | 98 |
|---|---|
| Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), With snowmaking | 157 |
| Days with ≥ 5 cm of natural snow (average) | 148 |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, Natural snow | 31 December – 10 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
| Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, With snowmaking | 23 November – 28 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30) |
Christmases with enough natural snow: 6 of 15 in 1984/85–1998/99, 6 of 15 in 1999/2000–2013/14. Snow days (≥ 30 cm) per season on average: 101 and 95.
What about the future? Climate scenarios
| Period | Christmas, days natural | Christmas, days with snowmaking | Season, days natural | Season, days with snowmaking |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Models, reference 1986–2005 | 8.6 | 14.0 | 104 | 161 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2021–2040 | 5.9 | 13.5 | 88 | 151 |
| Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2041–2060 | 4.7 | 13.1 | 69 | 143 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2021–2040 | 6.6 | 14.0 | 84 | 146 |
| Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2041–2060 | 4.1 | 14.0 | 58 | 136 |
Average of several regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX). Compare the scenarios with the model reference 1986–2005, not with the yearly values above: models and reanalysis have different errors. Scenarios are not forecasts.
The resort
| Country | Türkiye |
|---|---|
| Region (NUTS-3) | Erzurum (TRA11) |
| Pistes (OpenStreetMap) | 22 km |
| Pistes from … to | 2,320–3,130 m |
| Lifts | 4 |
| Map | OpenStreetMap |
What the numbers mean
- “Snow” here means at least 30 cm of snow depth in the model (Crocus) — enough to ski on, not just a white field.
- The model works per region (NUTS-3) and 100 m height band, not per piste; north-facing slopes, wind and glaciers are not taken into account.
- The reanalysis ends with the 2013/14 winter. More recent winters are not included.
- “With snowmaking” is the model's typical snowmaking, not the resort's actual equipment.