How snow-sure is Pamporovo?

At Pamporovo, there was enough natural snow at Christmas in 8 of the 30 winters 1984/85–2013/14: at least 30 cm on 10 or more of the 14 days from 22 December to 4 January at mid-mountain (1,700 m; pistes 1,454–1,932 m). With snowmaking: 30 of 30. Climate models expect an average of 1.4 such Christmas days with natural snow there in 2041–2060 (RCP4.5), against 3.3 in 1986–2005. Source: Copernicus C3S, Smolyan region.

How it works ↓

Data: C3S UERRA reanalysis, winters 1984/85–2013/14; EURO-CORDEX scenarios to 2060 · calculated 3 November 2026 · Methodology and sources

8 of 30Snowy Christmases · natural snow

30 of 30Snowy Christmases · with snowmaking

74Days ≥ 30 cm per season · natural snow

More snowy Christmases than 25% of ski resorts in Bulgaria and than 15% of the 690 European resorts on this site.

Christmas, year by year

1984/852013/14

Each box is one Christmas holiday (22 December to 4 January): the darker, the more days with at least 30 cm of natural snow. Outlined: at least 10 of the 14 days.

Christmases without enough natural snow (1,700 m): 1984/85, 1985/86, 1986/87, 1988/89, 1989/90, 1990/91, 1991/92, 1992/93, 1994/95, 1995/96, 1998/99, 1999/00, 2001/02, 2002/03, 2003/04, 2005/06, 2007/08, 2008/09, 2009/10, 2011/12, 2012/13, 2013/14.

Every winter in numbers

Winter	Days ≥ 30 cm, natural snow	Days ≥ 30 cm, with snowmaking
1984/85	0 of 14	14 of 14
1985/86	4 of 14	14 of 14
1986/87	6 of 14	14 of 14
1987/88	14 of 14	14 of 14
1988/89	8 of 14	14 of 14
1989/90	0 of 14	14 of 14
1990/91	7 of 14	14 of 14
1991/92	1 of 14	14 of 14
1992/93	0 of 14	14 of 14
1993/94	12 of 14	14 of 14
1994/95	3 of 14	14 of 14
1995/96	0 of 14	14 of 14
1996/97	14 of 14	14 of 14
1997/98	13 of 14	14 of 14
1998/99	4 of 14	14 of 14
1999/00	0 of 14	14 of 14
2000/01	14 of 14	14 of 14
2001/02	0 of 14	14 of 14
2002/03	2 of 14	14 of 14
2003/04	6 of 14	14 of 14
2004/05	13 of 14	14 of 14
2005/06	1 of 14	14 of 14
2006/07	14 of 14	14 of 14
2007/08	0 of 14	14 of 14
2008/09	0 of 14	14 of 14
2009/10	0 of 14	14 of 14
2010/11	13 of 14	14 of 14
2011/12	0 of 14	14 of 14
2012/13	0 of 14	14 of 14
2013/14	0 of 14	14 of 14

Don't travel to Pamporovo for natural snow at Christmas: at mid-mountain, 1,700 m, the holidays were snowy in only 8 of 30 winters (1984/85–2013/14), and 22 Christmases passed without enough snow. Over Christmas and New Year the resort in the Rhodope Mountains lives on snowmaking, with which the model gives 30 of 30. For natural snow over the holidays it beats only 25% of Bulgaria's resorts and 15% of the 690 in Europe.

January, February and March

Continuous snow cover of at least 30 cm in a typical winter only sets in by 16 January and holds until 1 April, an average of 74 such days per season. The holidays come before that season. Models for 2041–2060 (RCP4.5) give 1.4 snowy Christmas days out of 14 against 3.3 in the model reference 1986–2005 (methodology); these are climate scenarios, not a forecast. The best weeks for Pamporovo run from mid-January to March, and for a snowy Christmas in Bulgaria you're better off heading to Borovets (16 of 30 at 1,900 m) or Bansko (11 of 30).

Bottom, middle, top

Piste heights and Christmases with enough natural snow (of 30); light: snow-sure (≥ 25 of 30)

Level	m	C3S height band	Snowy Christmases	Days ≥ 30 cm per season
Bottom (lowest run)	1,454	1,500	1 of 30	32
Mid-mountain	1,693	1,700	8 of 30	74
Top (highest run)	1,932	1,800	6 of 30	70

The whole season

Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), Natural snow	74
Days with ≥ 30 cm (average), With snowmaking	140
Days with ≥ 5 cm of natural snow (average)	123
Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, Natural snow	16 January – 1 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 29/30)
Typical continuous snow cover ≥ 30 cm, With snowmaking	11 December – 26 April (Winters with a continuous cover: 30/30)

Christmases with enough natural snow: 4 of 15 in 1984/85–1998/99, 4 of 15 in 1999/2000–2013/14. Snow days (≥ 30 cm) per season on average: 83 and 65.

What about the future? Climate scenarios

Days ≥ 30 cm per season, natural snow – climate-model average

Period	Christmas, days natural	Christmas, days with snowmaking	Season, days natural	Season, days with snowmaking
Models, reference 1986–2005	3.3	13.1	66	133
Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2021–2040	1.8	11.6	45	122
Scenario RCP4.5 (medium emissions) 2041–2060	1.4	11.3	35	117
Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2021–2040	2.8	11.9	49	124
Scenario RCP8.5 (high emissions) 2041–2060	1.0	11.3	24	109

Average of several regional climate models (EURO-CORDEX). Compare the scenarios with the model reference 1986–2005, not with the yearly values above: models and reanalysis have different errors. Scenarios are not forecasts.

The resort

Country	Bulgaria
Region (NUTS-3)	Smolyan (BG424)
Pistes (OpenStreetMap)	24 km
Pistes from … to	1,454–1,932 m
Lifts	13
Map	OpenStreetMap

What the numbers mean

“Snow” here means at least 30 cm of snow depth in the model (Crocus) — enough to ski on, not just a white field.
The model works per region (NUTS-3) and 100 m height band, not per piste; north-facing slopes, wind and glaciers are not taken into account.
The reanalysis ends with the 2013/14 winter. More recent winters are not included.
“With snowmaking” is the model's typical snowmaking, not the resort's actual equipment.

How we calculate